An ICTA-UAB index identifies the municipalities most vulnerable to climate gentrification. Badia del Vallès, Sant Cugat, and Castelldefels are among the hotspots for potential displacement of vulnerable populations.
Extreme heat caused by climate change is emerging as a new driver of population displacement in the metropolitan area of Barcelona. Beyond record housing prices, increasingly frequent heatwaves could push residents from the capital and other densely urbanised areas to seek refuge in municipalities with more green spaces and better thermal comfort. This phenomenon, known as climate gentrification, has been analysed for the first time at a local scale by the Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB).
The research team has developed a pioneering index that allows for consultation, neighbourhood by neighbourhood and block by block, of vulnerability to this process in the 36 municipalities of the metropolitan area. The resulting map highlights particularly susceptible areas in Badia del Vallès, Valldoreix, Sant Cugat del Vallès, Sant Adrià de Besòs, Castelldefels, as well as some areas of Sant Boi de Llobregat and Torrelles de Llobregat. In these locations, the arrival of new residents with greater purchasing power, attracted by a cooler and more natural environment, could drive up housing prices and displace the most vulnerable local population.
ICTA-UAB researcher and Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC) member Amalia Calderón-Argelich explains that climate gentrification occurs when investment in green spaces, shaded areas, or improvements in energy efficiency of buildings generates speculation and inequality processes. “It may happen that housing prices rise in certain neighbourhoods, displacing the vulnerable population living there,” she warns. For Calderón-Argelich, it is a matter of environmental justice: “It is very important that everyone has access to live comfortably in a context of climate change.”
The index does not predict which areas will gentrify for certain, but it does specify the risks and the most susceptible areas. Purple tones indicate greater vulnerability, while yellow tones signify lower risk. The researchers emphasise that the problem is not the creation of green spaces per se, but the lack of parallel housing planning that ensures long-time residents can continue living in their neighbourhoods after improvements.
A recent example of this process, albeit in a different context, is the transformation of the green axis of Consell de Cent street in Barcelona, where commercial and housing prices have skyrocketed in recent years. Urban green policies and energy efficiency are necessary, but they must be accompanied by rental protection measures and the promotion of affordable housing to prevent thermal comfort from becoming a luxury accessible to few.
For the inhabitants of Vallès Occidental and Baix Llobregat, this study serves as a wake-up call. Municipalities like Badia del Vallès or Sant Cugat are already perceived as attractive destinations due to their natural environment, but the risk of displacing their most vulnerable residents is real if preventive measures are not taken. The ICTA-UAB index thus becomes a tool for municipalities and urban planners to anticipate these movements and design policies that combine climate adaptation with social equity.
The study arrives at a time when the diaspora from Barcelona to the metropolitan crown is already a consolidated phenomenon for economic reasons. Climate change adds a new layer of complexity: the search for a cool and healthy home could accelerate migratory flows and reconfigure the social geography of the metropolitan area in the coming years. ICTA-UAB researchers insist that urban planning must integrate both variables to prevent the climate crisis from exacerbating existing inequalities.
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