Castelldefels, Vilanova i la Geltrú, El Prat de Llobregat and Gavà are the four municipalities in the State where the number of heatwave days will increase the most until 2050, according to the Heat Vulnerability Atlas.
A study by the think tank trescientosmil and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) reveals that the Catalan coast will be one of the most affected areas by the increase in heatwaves in the coming decades. The report, which analyses 161 Spanish municipalities with more than 40,000 inhabitants, places Castelldefels at the top of the national ranking for the increase in heatwave days until 2050.
It is followed by Vilanova i la Geltrú, El Prat de Llobregat and Gavà. Other municipalities in the metropolitan area of Barcelona also appear, such as Viladecans in seventh position; Badalona in nineteenth; Barcelona in twenty-fourth; and Mataró in twenty-ninth.
On average, the number of heatwave days will triple in the municipalities analysed, while the need for cooling in homes will increase by 65%. This increase will have direct consequences on energy consumption, emissions, and energy poverty, according to the atlas.
The study combines climate projections until 2050 with urban and social indicators such as housing quality, urban greenery, access to everyday services, and personal income. The conclusion is that many cities will need to adapt their buildings and public spaces to heat conditions for which they were not designed.
In Catalonia, the major challenge will not be so much the increase in energy demand to cool buildings, but the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat episodes, especially on the coast and in the metropolitan area of Barcelona.
The report warns that the impact of heat will not only depend on the climate but also on each city's and each family's ability to adapt. The quality of housing, the presence of urban greenery, access to services, and income will mark significant differences.
Barcelona has a high income, a relatively favourable housing stock, and the best access to everyday supplies among the municipalities analysed. In contrast, Santa Coloma de Gramenet appears among the municipalities with the lowest income in the study and with poorer housing indicators. L'Hospitalet de Llobregat and Badalona also show weaknesses in some urban factors.
At the other end, Sant Cugat del Vallès combines one of the highest incomes in Spain with good results in urban greenery quality and access to services, reinforcing its capacity to adapt to heat.
Although Catalonia leads the increase in heatwaves, no Catalan city ranks among those with the highest increase in cooling needs. That ranking is dominated by municipalities in Andalusia and the inland peninsula, such as Linares, La Rinconada, Seville, Alcalá de Guadaíra, Córdoba, and Écija.
The atlas warns that the combination of more heat, poorly adapted housing, and fewer economic resources can translate into greater health risks, higher energy costs, and increased inequality. Therefore, the study points to the need to adapt the housing stock and strengthen urban policies in the face of an increasingly common scenario of extreme heat.
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