A study by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center places Vilanova i la Geltrú as the fourth municipality in Spain where heatwave days will increase the most by 2050, only behind Castelldefels, El Prat de Llobregat, and Gavà.
Heatwaves will triple on average in Spanish municipalities with over 40,000 inhabitants by 2050, and Vilanova i la Geltrú tops the list of the most affected cities. This is reflected in the Heat Vulnerability Atlas, prepared by the think tank trescientosmil and the Department of Earth Sciences at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), which analyses 161 locations across the country.
According to the report, Vilanova i la Geltrú ranks fourth in the national ranking of municipalities where extreme heat episodes will increase the most. Only Castelldefels, El Prat de Llobregat, and Gavà surpass it. Other coastal towns in Catalonia such as Viladecans, Badalona, Barcelona, and Mataró also appear among the top positions.
The study combines climate projections with urban and socioeconomic indicators, such as housing quality, green space area, access to everyday services, and average income. The result indicates that vulnerability to heat will not only depend on temperature but also on each city's capacity to adapt its buildings, streets, and public spaces.
In the case of Vilanova i la Geltrú, the report outlines a clear challenge: to prepare the residential stock and urban space for more persistent heat. Many buildings were not designed to withstand the climatic conditions expected in the coming decades, which could lead to increased pressure on households, especially those with poorer insulation, less ventilation, or lower economic capacity to install cooling systems.
The Heat Vulnerability Atlas warns that the combination of more heatwaves, poorly adapted housing, and economic inequalities could increase health risks and energy poverty. In this context, the quality of urban greenery, the presence of shade, proximity to services, and the capacity to rehabilitate homes will be key factors in reducing the impact of heat on daily life.
The Catalan and Balearic coast leads the increase in extreme heat episodes in Spain, while the southern peninsula concentrates the most significant increases in cooling needs. In contrast, cities along the Cantabrian coast show a more moderate evolution. Regarding cooling demand, no Catalan city ranks among the top positions in the national ranking, which is dominated by Andalusian municipalities and those in the interior of the peninsula.
The study, presented this week, aims to serve as a tool for municipalities and public administrations to design climate change adaptation policies. Researchers recommend prioritising energy rehabilitation of buildings, creating climate shelters, and expanding green areas to mitigate the effects of extreme heat.
Residents of Vilanova i la Geltrú can expect, according to projections, a significant increase in days with extreme temperatures in the coming decades. The report does not provide exact figures for each municipality, but the national average points to a tripling of heatwave episodes. The municipality's adaptation to this scenario will be key to avoiding health risks and maintaining quality of life.
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